His original aim was to reorganize the military establishment and centralize its many disperse intelligence agencies, though half of its purpose involved covert operations. Seventy years later, with so many technological advances, including the Internet and the World Wide Web, plus investigative powers extended by the USA Patriot Act and funding extended by Pres.
Having established that the Deep State correlates closely to Plutonian realities, ones that can be as offensive as they are elusive, we will next discuss how and where Pluto operates in astrological terms. The arena of life where Pluto forces change is determined by the house and sign position it is transiting. Pluto is currently in sidereal Sagittarius and moves through this sign for 15 years: Feb.
Sagittarius is a warrior sign, and the one zodiacal sign symbolized by a weapon: an arrow, additionally, an archer with a bow and arrow. Any planet transiting through Sagittarius takes on this warrior thrust. Thus, all the fire signs have royal associations, though these long-term ties can finally be broken if royalty is experienced as tyrannical. Sagittarius is the strongest zodiacal sign for patriotism, national pride, and nationalism, and thus an excellent Ascendant for a national chart.
With tr. Not even three months into his presidency, on April 7 and 14, , Trump bombed targets in both Syria and Afghanistan and took stronger positions in confronting Russia, North Korea and China, among others. What is remarkable is the sudden and complete reversal of his policy positions, campaign promises and his stated positions since Likewise, during the last two years of the Obama administration, when tr. Pluto was also within 3 degrees opposite the USA Sun, this former opponent of the nuclear arms race ordered the upgrading of the aging U. And this is not unique among U. Is our economy so dependent on Perpetual War that we must keep looking for the next war?
And if so, who exactly is directing this policy? President Eisenhower warned of this development in his Farewell address to the nation Jan. This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government.
We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved. So is the very structure of our society. In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The Gemini-Sagittarius axis can be seen as the nervous system of the world. This Jupiter transit supports the President and offsets other more adverse trends, as will tr. Jupiter rules over journalism and education, and Saturn rules over business, corporations and corporate conglomerates.
The fields of journalism and education are increasingly diminished in the EARTH period, co-opted by corporate interests who want total control over information and the profits from that information. This happens due to the nature of both Jupiter and Saturn through the signs and elements, and also because the JU-SA combination is both a conjunction and a Graha Yuddha , or Planetary War, in which Saturn wins over Jupiter, who is far weaker in earth signs compared to Saturn. In a Graha Yuddha , the winning planet takes on the energy of the losing planet, while overpowering it with its own energy and agenda.
Unless other factors soften the outcome, the affairs of the loser, as Karaka significator and house lord are diminished considerably. And this is by no means confined to authoritarian countries. But as long as the public continues to ignore the influence of intelligence agencies in shaping or even fabricating news stories, the agency will continue to be able to set the policy that drives the American War Machine at will. James Corbett. Wikileaks has played a pivotal role in this process of unmasking government secrets, and their track record for document authenticity is also excellent.
Their domain name was first registered Oct. And yes, there was theft of documents by those risking their lives to do so. It could also be said they are filling a vacuum left by the dearth of investigative journalists, most of them now working for the corporate media, who in turn have strong ties to the CIA. Reflecting the dual nature of Sagittarius, the document leakers are seen by the government as traitors guilty of high treason, and by others as cultural heroes of high courage. This covers four U. Presidential primary and election seasons: , , and Following the election, U.
Meanwhile, the U. But the reality is that such surveillance targets all private citizens everywhere, including American citizens. It makes everyone more vulnerable to both domestic and foreign hackers. All this changed for Americans and citizens around the world in Sept. Bush declared a War on Terror soon after the tragic events of Sept. On this day at the moment of the first attack, tr. Pluto was at Scorpio in Saturn-ruled Anuradha nakshatra in the 6 th Navamsha , i.
The 4 th Amendment to the U. And now with tr. Pluto closely opposite the USA Sun, it potentially threatens the viability of the presidency itself. Coincidentally, Trump hired his own private security team, even as he was assigned Secret Service detail as of Nov. Trump has had ongoing battles with the U. On April 7, Trump ordered 60 Tomahawk missiles to be fired at Syria. Instead, he spent large amounts on foreign military interventions he had said he was against. Nevertheless, the liberal media was delighted by the new military actions, as were Neocon Republicans and corporate Democrats, factions that are tightly aligned with the CIA and openly supported by them.
Meanwhile, the budget for the CIA and some other intelligence agencies remains unknown, though we do know it is increasing exponentially, given the vast outlay for new intelligence projects, buildings and personnel. To gain more perspective on the larger history of the Deep State, a brief review of events from late onward when the CIA was created should include the assassination of John F.
Kennedy on Nov. At the moment Kennedy was shot, tr. Pluto was in Leo close to the 8 th house cusp of hidden things, with four planets in the 8 th sign of Scorpio in the 11 th house: Sun, Mercury, Mars and Venus. President Kennedy had a very tense relationship with the CIA, especially after they undermined him both with the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Cuban Missile crisis.
Reagan also survived an assassination attempt March 30, Nixon was elected in Nov. During the Presidential elections of , and , tr. Pluto was in sidereal Virgo in the 10 th house of the USA chart. Pluto transited sidereal Virgo Oct. On Jan. Nixon used the CIA and the NSA for domestic spying totally illegal and unconstitutional , notably to go after his political enemies and anti-Vietnam war protestors. On June 11, tr. The astrological parallel is that the Deep State seemed to be working closely at that time with the Head of State, symbolized by the 10 th house as well as the Sun, until it became a problem for the Deep State to be associated with the President.
One of the five burglars was a CIA officer James McCord , as were others of those convicted of taking part in the planning of the conspiracy, burglary, and illegal wiretapping, including E. Gordon Liddy, FBI. All in all, there were 47 government officials jailed or indicted for Watergate crimes, including Attorney General John Mitchell. By Sept. Pluto had exited Virgo and the 10 th house of the USA chart. Thus the Deep State was no longer in the spotlight, where it is more easily seen and caught. Pluto in Virgo, by the mids those same institutions ceased to protect the nation from serious abuses by the Chief Executive and CIA covert operations.
The Reagan administration instructed at least one official we know of Lt. This was against express orders by Congress. The earlier part of Iran-Contra had to do with selling weapons to Iran as part of a reported arrangement to free the American hostages in Iran and convince Iran they would get a better deal with Reagan than with Carter. Moreover, his personal survival and his presidency were greatly protected by the triple JU-SA conjunctions in Virgo, two of them close to his election and inauguration. When tr.
Pluto entered Sagittarius in Feb. Reflecting tr. This is reportedly because he did not support their military plans — until April Otherwise, they are strongly aligned against Trump, and were vehemently against him throughout the Presidential Election. Initial CIA documents released by Wikileaks March 7, Vault 7 strongly support that premise, even the small percentage of the documents released as of April On July 22, tr. In an unprecedented development, this already large campaign alliance was supported privately by the CIA and publicly by ex-CIA officials. Wikileaks documents from the DNC and the Clinton campaign revealed that major media organizations were tasked with elevating Trump as GOP nominee, then trashing him once he became the nominee — a process that has never really stopped, even with the legal election of Trump as president.
Meanwhile, veteran CIA cyber security experts insist there is no evidence Russia was involved, and this was supported by Vault 7 revelations that the CIA can easily leave digital fingerprints, falsely implicating other nations such as Russia. Plutonian realities can bring unlikely alliances, which happened on both sides. One such example is the pre-election unity of the GOP Neocons with corporate Democrats, both supporting Clinton, and perhaps not so unlikely given the rightward shift of the Democratic Party.
They lost 16 million registered Democratic voters both before and after the Nov. But together the Clinton-Neocon alliance continued opposing Trump even after the election, cheerfully urging on the CIA in their efforts to sabotage Trump in any way possible, apparently unaware of the dangerous and unaccountable powers they are unleashing.
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His sudden shift of position in early April changed all that, as we know, and within a few weeks of the Pluto Stationary Retrograde on April 20, Other surprising alliances became established as early as of Nov. Their collective aim is to destroy the image and reputation of the Trump presidency.
He was hired by the Hillary Clinton campaign to destroy Sanders and then Trump. The parallel to Plutonian traits is clear: Their tactics know no boundaries and no ideologies in their aim to retain or acquire power, privilege and wealth. And the connection of Pluto to the Deep State seems obvious here. Pluto in the 7 th house, we could say the likelihood of the opposition to Trump comes from foreign powers.
In a TV talk show, the sitting Chairman of NAB admitted the pressures he was experiencing from the political circles, but emphasized the fact that anti-corruption outfits need to develop the capacity whereby it can prevent crime from taking place because catching a thief after he has committed a crime is a tough task requiring production of evidence that usually is well concealed. Besides, criminals escape abroad, courtesy violations of the ECL. During that conference, I assisted in drafting of that part of the anti-corruption strategy, which was aimed at containment of tax evasion. This formed part of the conference brief that was later published by NAB.
What is odd, however, is the fact that, despite the PPP being in power beginning March , the exact cause of her death, and the characters who are involved in her assassination, remain a mystery. According to the UN inquiry Commission, doctors who examined her body were of the opinion that she died of a severe head injury as she hit the edge of the roof opening of her vehicle.
She saw no wounds other than the one to the right side of her head and the thoracotomy wound. She was next dressed in hospital clothing and her clothes given to her maid. The doctors stated that in their opinion there was no bullet mark on her head or her body. I know the forensics reports are useless. Bhutto was shot and killed. Bhutto disappeared from view.
Although Mr. Zardari admitted his role in disallowing the autopsy, Interior Minister Rehman Malik said that post-mortem was dropped on the instructions of the police officer on duty or this contradiction created doubts about who prevented the autopsy. Nor has Rehman Malik explained where was he when Ms. Bhutto was returning from Liaquat Bagh—the venue of that unfortunate public meeting—when she was fatally injured. The investigation into this sad event too did not proceed at the pace it should have, though by February 14, police had arrested 5 suspects. The trial finally began on February 29; in November the Anti-Terrorist Court ATC framed the charges, and in the summer of , the ministry of interior appointed Chaudhry Zulfiqar Ali as special prosecutor.
But these two officers were arrested for their likely involvement in Ms. Besides their delayed arrest, progress in the case was practically zero until October 10, How the proceedings were stretched is visible from the fact that until , eight challans were filed. The seventh challans was filed on February 2, , and the eighth and the last on June 6, During that press conference, Mr Zardari referred to Ms. Pervez Musharraf because she accused him of non-seriousness about her security.
That response had accused the government of protecting the conspirators. In the election year, it may prove a deadly liability. Recent political developments have further contributed to the creation of an environment of uncertainty which could be used as an excuse for postponing the elections. At a time when the elections are round the corner, such a demand, though appreciable, is seen as untenable as it is improbable, if not impossible, to give it a practical manifestation in the short time left for the coming polls.
The demand is seen in certain quarters as contradictory, and in conflict with the provisions of the Constitution of Pakistan. Although Dr. On the other hand, the Election Commission of Pakistan ECP has announced that political parties failing to have held their in-party elections in terms of Article 14 of Political Parties Order would not be allotted symbols to contest the elections. However, of the. If the ECP is firm in implementing this requirement, it would mean that the political parties would be kept out of the electoral process.
In all fairness, the requirement should be met, but if such a large number of political parties are kept out of the elections, would it not lead to pointing of fingers on the fairness of the electoral process? If the ECP really means it, it should have taken notice of this outcome much earlier, and notified accordingly affording enough time for the political parties to hold their in-party elections.
It is about time that a firm date of election is announced and arrangements made to ensure that election would not be deferred. Holding of elections is not a new phenomenon; it has its roots in the distant past when people in ancient Greece and Rome, and throughout the medieval period, used this route to electing their rulers. Yet, they were not representative because of the eligibility criteria attached therewith.
The conduct of free, fair and impartial elections is vital for political integration which is inevitably important for survival of a democratic dispensation. Ironically, however, the history of elections in Pakistan has not been that enviable. Historically, between and , the country did not have any direct elections at the national level.
Provincial elections were held occasionally, but they too were not reflective of the will of the people. The provincial elections held in the then West Pakistan, were described as "a farce, a mockery, and a fraud upon the electorate. Ayub Khan on the political stage in came the system of Basic Democracy wherein the voters were required to surrender their rights in favour of some 80, representatives called Basic Democrats who chose the president and the members of the national and provincial assemblies. The first presidential election in Pakistan www.
The election was allegedly rigged by Convention Muslim League led by the then Gen. Ayub Khan to defeat the combined opposition led by Mohtarma Fatimah Jinnah. The only election generally believed to have been free and fair, was that of under the then dictator Gen. Yahya Khan. But then we lost the Eastern wing of the country consequent to the election results as their implementation did not reflect the popular will of the people.
All the elections held subsequent to were allegedly flawed and rigged. Measured on this yardstick, even modern elections in many countries are not truly free and fair. Therefore, monitoring and minimizing electoral fraud is an ongoing task even in countries with strong traditions of free and fair elections. In the current scenario in Pakistan, indications are that the goal of fairness and transparency may be achieved. The presence of an independent ECP, its avowed vision and determined moves so far witnessed, seem gradually shedding away the apprehensions about any lack of its capacity and capability, and lead one to believe that the challenge of generating a genuine electoral environment will squarely be met if the issues coming in its way are amicably settled.
Reportedly, of the 8. Under an order of the Supreme Court, voters lists need to be updated. It is appreciable that the ECP has voluntarily taken upon itself the onerous responsibility of rectifying this distortion through door-to-door re-verification by its staff and including Army personnel in those teams, for security of the verifiers. The delimitation of the constituencies is yet another tricky issue amenable to solution. Since the correction of the voters lists and delimitation of constituencies, are Karachi-specific, and have drawn a strong reaction from the MQM, it calls for deftness to resolve them amicably.
MQM has expressed its reservations about these issues, and perhaps rightly so, and demanded the exercise, if needed, to be undertaken throughout the country. MQM has described the Karachi-specific exercise 26 www. It is to be seen how deftly the ECP is able to resolve this serious issue. For parties that claim to have their vote bank intact, issues like correction of the voters list or delimitation of constituencies may hardly have any adverse impact on the election results.
What is important is to ensure that voters are encouraged and facilitated to come to the polling stations and cast their votes freely according to the dictates of their conscience. It is heartening to note that, to facilitate voters in casting their votes, the ECP has decided that the number of polling stations will be increased ensuring that they are set up at a distance of 2 kilo meters each. Equally important is the need to maintain peace and order at and around the polling stations. Historically, the powerful among the contenders are used to taking over polling stations by use of force.
The ECP decision to deploy the army personnel inside and around the polling stations will hopefully make the polling exercise peaceful and transparent. Last but not the least important is the need for adoption of a code of electoral conduct and ensuring maximum electoral turnout to make the results truly representative.
It is for the first time in the chequered history of Pakistan that a democratic setup will be completing its full five-year term by 17th March Thereafter, a caretaker government is to be installed which will be bound to hold the general elections within 90 days. Certain quarters are voicing the fear that attempts may be made to create a situation that may help the government to defer the elections for a year or so.
The heightened incidents of killings in Karachi and other parts of the country are being quoted as part of such machinations. The demand for undertaking country-wide delimitation of constituencies is also being considered an attempt to facilitate for the postponement of the elections. Should that be true, it would be tragic. The ECP, the politicians, and the common man need to be wary of such machinations and avoid playing into the hands of those who may be out to delay the elections. The forthcoming elections in Pakistan will shape the direction the country will take in the years ahead.
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Holding of free, fair and impartial election is a moral as well as constitutional obligation. On its part, the ECP has made elaborate arrangements to ensure transparency and fairness in the elections to expose the popular will of the people. One hopes and wishes that the coming elections are held on time, are peaceful, fair and transparent, and in accordance with the spirit of the Constitution of Pakistan. If this can be ensured, it would be a feather in the cap of the ECP and of the sitting government. In early December , official reserves. The fact that the Rupee had already depreciated by around 8 percent compared to its January 1, level, and was on a slide allthrough December , was an indication of its depreciating further unless fresh backing in the shape of foreign inflows could be provided.
The likelihood that headline inflation could again rise to a double digit figure by mid, could make this chaos even worse. In , the fiscal deficit excluding grants reached 8. For , the government had planned a fiscal deficit of 4. The impact of ending up with such a huge deficit would be passed on to the SBP and the financial services sector in the shape of higher market borrowing by the government, and will further cut credit to the private sector that is already in a bad shape.
The IMF expressed its dismay over the fact that private sector credit growth remained subdued, with adverse consequences for economic growth. Rising financing needs of the state, its considerable commodity operations, and risk aversion by banks, forced diversion of credit away from the private sector. The fact that liquidity indicators in banks are being boosted by higher investment in government debt is lowering economic growth. Although banks reported a decline in this indicator to 15 percent as of end-September the non-performing loans of domestic private as well as foreign banks and DFIs went up, indicating a rise in systemic risk—a risk that showed its colours during the AugustSeptember crisis that heralded the global recession.
Besides pointing to the importance of diverting more credit to the private sector, and further developing the capital markets, the IMF advised early recapitalisation of public and specialised lending institutions DFI and passage of the long overdue legislation for creation of the deposit insurance mechanism. While the IMF report does not specifically hint about printing of more currency and the resultant increase in money in circulation which could trigger higher inflation , the risk of its happening is there; that the currency printing option was exercised in the past four years is true as proved by the fact that against average annual GDP growth of 3 percent, rise in money in circulation crossed 14 percent.
This trend that has also been fuelled by low profit rates on bank deposits due to unrealistic estimates of consumer and core inflation, 28 www. Backed by claims about falling inflation and pointing to weak investment environment, in July-Dec , SBP brought down its policy rate by a cumulative basis points including the cut announced on December This bolstered the argument that monetary policy is helping fund the fiscal deficit.
Only then will the pressure for funding fiscal needs ease that hike up the demand for money and cause inflation to rise. IMF has underscored the need for reducing the large fiscal deficit, which is imperative for restoring macroeconomic as well as external stability. In the long run, however, strengthening the fiscal position will require creating space for investing in the crumbling physical infrastructure and on projects that lower poverty—aims whose realization calls for comprehensive and credibly implemented reforms to ensure the transparency of expenditures and substantially improved collection of tax and non-tax revenues.
The fiscal consolidation effort must focus on changes in tax policy to rationalize it, and also ensure its compliance by all—taxpayers as well as taxation authorities. The tax amnesty scheme was not seen by many as the right course for resolving the long-running fiscal deficit issue.
On the contrary, it was likely to serve as a disincentive for the honest taxpayers to go on paying taxes. Some IMF directors had therefore urged reconsideration of the amnesty scheme being devised by the Finance Ministry. Instead, IMF directors advised the authorities to consider credible alternative tax collection systems. This compromise, though not fair, may work but the key issue is expanding the tax net that the FBR is failing in; the fact that according to FBR, only 0.
What the trade bodies did was to malign the FBR by labelling this directive a blackmailing effort, though the FBR demand was perfectly legal. Surprisingly, in the context of this key failure, there was no explicit reference in the IMF review to the resource waste, which has been the hot topic in Pakistani media, and now in the assessment released by Transparency International.
It is surprising not to find a reference to this big impediment to reducing the fiscal deficit. Tales about resorting to flawed auctioning practices in case of the G3 telecom licenses and doubts about receiving funds under the Kerry-Lugar Bill or recovering dues from CSF, make things more uncertain. Oil and gas, financial business, trade, construction, power and communication were the main sectors which attracted investment.
The share of FDI flowing into Pakistan is negligible when compared with opportunities and economic fundamentals of the country.
The report said that there was a continuous trend of decrease in foreign investment in Pakistan and a conspicuous decline was recorded in the tenure of present government. The report said that the foreign investment had also declined in India; however, there is an upward trend now.
It is important to mention here that global economic conditions improved in compared to Foreign direct investment to developed, developing and transition economies rebounded sharply in Despite better global economic conditions, FDI flows to Pakistan declined further in owing to a number of domestic issues that substantially increased the cost of doing businesses in Pakistan. Sector-specific issues such as saturation in the telecom sector and acute energy shortages also deterred the investment flows.
Sector-wise data on the FDI shows that the major fall in investment was registered in the telecommunication and oil and gas exploration sectors, whereas FDI flows to power and financial sectors recorded a modest rise. The decline in telecommunication sector probably reflects saturation in this sector. Moreover, stiff competition, rising advertisement cost, utilities cost and energy cost have squeezed the profits of telecommunication companies. On the other hand, the law and order situation i.
The net inflow of foreign investment into Pakistan further fell by 8. The decline in foreign direct investment continued for the third consecutive year. A year on year decline of Equity capital recorded a fall of While foreign direct investment declined due to lingering issues such as terrorism, energy shortages, corruption etc, portfolio investment registered a relative improvement.
The overall position of portfolio investment improved in FY11 as outflows in debt securities remained much lower than in FY However, the investment in equity securities declined in FY This trend continued in FY 12 also. FDI fell sharply by Foreign private investment declined by a modest The portfolio investment at the local equity market witnessed a sharp increase of However, during the first four months of the current fiscal year FDI plummeted by However, such inflows have also declined in recent years.
The IFIs seem reluctant to extend support in the absence of letter of comfort from IMF as Pakistan currently does not have any program with the Fund as IMF generally issues letter of comfort to countries which enter into a program with the Fund. Economic experts say that there is a dire need to attract large inflows of private and foreign investments to revive economic growth in the country.
According to a study main causes of this sharp decline are political instability, law and order situation, energy crisis, corruption, lack of required infrastructure, lack of enforcement of cont- racts, comparatively less share of credit to non-government sectors and high corporate tax rates. Political stability is vital for the implementation of long-term consistent policies but due to frequent government changes, inconsistent policies have been a strong threat to foreign investors.
The demand for energy has far exceeded the supply causing a vicious circle to start. The industries have to either put their production on hold or resort to alternative energy sources. This crisis has impacted the labor market causing hundreds of thousands of people to lose their jobs.
Poor infrastructure facilities also contribute in pushing investors further away. The tax structure also needs to be reviewed in order to attract foreign investment. According to the report of UNCTAD mentioned above, countries in the region face various challenges which need to be tackled in order to build an attractive investment climate for enhancing development. The challenges facing the region are stabilization in Afghanistan, security concerns in Iran and Pakistan and macroeconomic as well as political issues in India. It points out that at the country level high political risks and obstacles have been an important factor deterring FDI inflows.
Countries in the region rank high in the country risk guides of political-risk assessment services and political restrictions on both FDI and business links between countries in the region have long existed. However, recent development in the region have highlighted new opportunities in the wake of political relationship between India and Pakistan, the two major economies of the sub-continent, which have now being moving towards greater cooperation, with Pakistan granting India Most Favored Nation MFN status in November and India recently announcing that it will allow FDI from Pakistan.
In Afghanistan, some FDI has also started to flow in extractive industries. In every epoch, the nature, direction and frequency of this interaction has been different largely depending on the political organization on the international level. With the establishment of extant modern nation-state system under the Treaty of Westphalia in international interaction and consequent interdependence became more organized, regulated by legal procedures and consequently cumbersome.
As the state system kept on strengthening and evolving and in the process became more rigid the international interdependence became unidirectional. The state to state interaction during the period between establishment of the nation state system and the beginning of 2nd World War remained restricted more or less to limited political economic interaction.
However, contemporary interstate relationship is multifaceted and complex with various actors and institutions, mostly non-state. This has given a new shape to our World and the interaction of the people globally. Although the institution of state is still very strong and relevant despite the emergence of various non-state international actors but if a state has to take fullest advantage of the situation its strategists ought to have a deep understanding of the changed international system and its institutions and actors.
It is equally true for Pakistani foreign policy framers and strategists. The multidimensional nature of contemporary international relations has been dubbed as Complex Interdependence. The concept of Complex Interdependence was first brought to the fore by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye as a neoliberal critique of the realist view or explanation of the world. Complex Interdependence is the idea that states and their fortunes are inextricably tied together.
The theorists recognized that the various and complex transnational connections and interdependencies between states and societies were increasing, while the use of military force and power balancing are decreasing but remain important. Against the backdrop of Complex Interdependence it is believed that there has been a decline of military force as a tool of policy and the simultaneous increase in economic and other forms of interdependence between and among states leading to the probability of cooperation rather than conflict. This needs to be specifically learned by Pakistani strategists, who have always been for the use of military might as a fundamental tool of policy.
In the post World War II era countries interests have become increasingly intertwined. The monumental growth in transnational corporations has blurred state boundaries putting on the traditional realist assumptions about the centrality of state on the defensive intellectually.
The concept of Complex Interdependence can be explained, most appropriately, against the backdrop of realist worldview. Realists contend. Diametrically opposed Complex Interdependence stresses upon cooperation rather than conflict in international relations and this is what happened since the end of Second World War. The advocates of Complex Interdependence recognize that violence and conflict have not vanished altogether from interstate relations; still they think non-security related issues have gained more significance like international monetary relations and global environment concerns.
The day-to-day affairs of states have more to do with promoting cooperative economic interaction than with military and security matters. In this context the statement of Pakistan Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, some months back while visiting Siachen, that the yardsticks of security and development of a country is the availability of basic amenities to the majority of the people than military might, really sounds significant and that of a statesman.
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The complexity of contemporary interdependence between and among states can be divided into four separate dimensions: its sources, benefits, costs, and symmetry. As a theory Complex Interdependence challenges the core concepts of the previously dominant and still very relevant paradigm of realism. These realist assumptions define an arena of World politics which is characterized by continual conflicts among states and the conditions so volatile that use of force is possible at any time.
Each state attempts to defend its territory and interest from real or perceived threats. Political engagements and alliances between states are interest-driven and last as long as they are mutually beneficial. Moreover, transnational actors do not exist or an extremely unimportant. Only the adroit use or threat of force enables states to survive. Whereas, the world system could be held in a balance if the statesmen succeed in adjusting their interests. Each of the realist assumptions can be challenged. Simultaneous challenging these one could prove that in the international arena actors other than the states also take part and no clear hierarchy of issues exists.
Moreover, in such conditions with multiple actors and no clear. All these characteristics come under the purview of the concept of Complex Interdependence. These channels can be summarized as interstate, transgovernmental and transnational relations.
Secondly, the presence of multiple issues between and among states is another feature of the concept. The agenda of interstate relations, unlike realist military-security focus of international interaction, consists of multiple issues. However, these multiple issues are not arranged in a hierarchy in a clear and consistent manner as is in the case of realist assumptions.
These issues are dealt with by a number of government agencies and departments and are not entirely subject to the business of foreign offices. Thirdly, another characteristic of Complex Interdependence is that the military force is not used by governments toward other governments within the region, or on the issues, when conditions of Complex Interdependence prevail.
Under Complex Interdependence there are a variety of state goals—not merely the physical survival of the state—that must be pursued. Although there is an absence of clear hierarchy of issues, goals will vary by issue and may not be closely related. Every bureaucracy will have to pursue its specific institutional goals although several agencies may reach agreement on issues that affect all national goals.
As there are multiple channels of contact among societies, this further blurs the distinction between domestic and international politics. Interestingly, under Complex Interdependence the making of political alliances, once believed to be limited to domestic politics, are no longer confined to within the state; political coalitions could be formed even on international level. In particular, international environmental NGOs have challenged the theory of state sovereignty by linking to local resistance movements. They have eroded both the territorial and national borders through these transnational alliances.
Their work with local level resistance movements has allowed these international actors to intervene into the domestic affairs of states. This intervention results in the internationalization of the local movements. The more conditions of Complex Interdependence prevail the more one can anticipate the outcome of political bargaining to be influenced by transnational relations.
For instance, MNCs could be significant as their. International relations have experienced significant transformation in the post World War period and especially after the Cold War era, these relationships have attained a new direction. The attitudes and policy stances of domestic groups are likely to be affected by communications, organized or not, between these groups and their partners abroad. Here the example of terrorist groups is quite relevant. One can also see these challenges to sovereignty by looking at the effects of NGOs on the territorial and national borders of the state.
These demarcations are essential to the concept of state sovereignty. NGOs as wells as MNCs are entangled in many transnational relations which cut across national boundaries. Technology has allowed for the effortless electronic transfer of information and capital across territorial boundaries. The flow of such resources across territorial borders undermines state supremacy over internal activities. State loyalties and identity are also diminished as a result of NGOs. National boundaries are necessary for the theory of state sovereignty and are eroded by NGO activity.
This blurring of national interest by pursuance of a narrow interest of a government agency creates serious problems for the top political leaders of government. The reason is that under Complex Interdependence centralized control becomes difficult because bureaucracies contact each other across national boundaries without bringing in the formal procedures and requirements of foreign offices. Resultantly there is less certainty that all the components of a state will act and think in unison while dealing with other governments or all the components will interpret national interests similarly.
The negative fallout of this condition is that the state may turn out to be multifaceted and even schizophrenic. Moreover, there is a compartmentalization of national interests as on each issue there will be a different definition of national interest and it may be different at different time and defined differently by various governmental agencies. Pakistan is a typical example of this situation where different institutions have different interest presented as national interest.
Indubitably, the interstate relationships have really changed into international relations with individuals, groups, organizations and governmental bureaucracies interacting with their counterparts in other countries directly and with decreasing governmental control of their respective states to channelize these interactions. The complexity of international interactions although has brought huge benefits to all and sundry but simultaneously has also given birth to novel problems for people and governments.
These problems are at times hard to negotiate having large-scale implications. The foremost and biggest impact of the evolution of the complex networks of international interactions is that it has eroded the state and its institutions and this does not augur well for the stability of international order. On one occasion I turned the sprinklers on in the garden, and ran through the water a few times until I was drenched. The following hours saw the wrath of my mother and the outpour of anger and concern as she dried me off preventing me from falling sick.
I was at an intellectual loss to understand how there could be one rule for her and another for me. It was beyond me. But then again it was petty sibling rivalry and animosity. Of course not, there is one rule for them and another for us. Those young financial aficionados amongst you, who have yet to inherit the perfidious grey hairs on your heads, will probably not remember a man by the name of Agha Hassan Abedi — a Pakistani financier, who founded the Bank.
Within 10 years of its birth, the growth of this Arabowned, Pakistani managed bank was phenomenal. It became the fastest growing bank, with a network of branches in over 72 countries. This was an enormous feat by any standards, especially by a bank that was originally set up as an institution to help bridge the gap between the Third world and the West. Naturally, the prying eyes of the world were on BCCI. Undeniably, there were factions of the Western banking elite, traditionally controlled by the Wall Street or regulators like the Bank of England that saw BCCI through the doctrine of suspicion.
BCCI became a victim of its own success. Here was a bank that came literally from nowhere, had installed conspicuous branches dotted around the most sought after prime locations in central London, attracting high net worth individuals as depositors, and was growing at a rate faster than it takes Dominic Strauss Kahn to unzip his trousers.
It is said that if you walked into any BCCI branch, it would feel and look as though you have walked into the lobby of a luxurious yet classy 5-star hotel. Abedi had transformed the meaning of consumer and personal banking in the real practical sense. Normally in high street banks, customers were used to tedious long queues, derelict shop fronts, dull interiors and gloomy carpets and lighting. This was whole new personal banking revolution, and Agha Hassan Abedi was its pioneer.
So what went wrong, and how did it all go pear-shaped for this promising ambitious Third World bank that thousands of people entrusted with their hard earned money? Well, for the Full Monty, you will have to read my book due for release next summer. However, for the eager, zealous and impatient readers I shall give you the quintessence in a nutshell. Agha Hassan Abedi knew that his bank was the next big thing and on target to possibly being the largest bank in the world. He was forging relationships with political heavyweights and rubbing shoulders with the likes of former US president Jimmy Carter and the Pope.
However, in order to really get to where he wanted to be and fulfill his vision, he needed a presence in the USA. On paper the deal was legitimate and signed. It was unthinkable for the Americans to digest that a once unknown bank from the Middle East was replacing and overtaking the banking world, leaving the likes of Citibank, JP Morgan Chase and others behind. He went on further to the extent that he will order a shake up and entire re-structuring of the bank worldwide with new staff and management.
The Bank of England had already started a similar re-structuring of the bank prior to its closure, but still decided to close it down instead. The conclusion being that when the head of the UAE Royal family majority shareholder gives you a guarantee of funds, accepts responsibility, co-operates with restructuring the bank and re-assures the world of the financial stability of the bank with his personal backing — and then the bank STILL ends up being forced shut by the Western authorities, then we really have to question whether something else was at play here.
Now the first thing coming to all of your minds is that this was a typical tale of East blaming the West, blaming the misdoings of a few corrupt Pakistani bankers on Western jealousy, conspiracy theories galore, and racism. However we only need to read the front headline of the newspapers of the past week to figure that one out. What does that mean?
I hear you all cry. Libor is also an important index for derivatives, which are complex agreements whose value derives from a benchmark. Libor is the most widely used interest rate in the world. Some may have deflated their rates to give the impression that they were more creditworthy than they actually were. Two days later, chief executive Bob Diamond said he would attend a Commons Treasury Select Committee, and that the bank would co-operate with authorities.
However, he insisted he would not resign. The same day, Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King called for a cultural change, but ruled out a Leveson-style inquiry into the banks. Sounds very flaky to me! Still reading? The shortfall was cleared up the next day, but the CFTC faulted the bank for its delay in notifying the regulator.
The bank allegedly counted customer money when calculating how much credit it would extend to Lehman. The commission also alleged JPMorgan did not return the customer funds until it was ordered to do so almost two weeks after the bankruptcy. Continue reading. Goldman Sachs Endless scandals! Goldman Sachs is reported to have systematically helped the Greek government mask the true facts concerning its national debt between the years and Iran is listed under US sanctions and there are strict controls in place for dealing with them.
However, Standard Chartered broke all the rules. Wire-stripping is when a bank alters bank codes to hide the origin of a transaction. HSBC Finally we head to the holy grail of scandals of recent times. By accepting its fault and paying for settlement, HSBC avoided criminal charges. Therefore, what makes me smile with unease is the way the news of the world-record fine on HSBC gets swept under the carpet sooner than it took me to forget my first girlfriend in boarding school.
The bank scandal was headline news last week and by the weekend, we see the news disappear in the newspapers and TV broadcasts. Where did all this money come from if the bank was insolvent? Now the money laundering laws are much more stringent than two decades ago. Not only does it exist but, the size of the market has increased manifolds. Despite more strict and stringent laws the fraudulent market is growing. These were all funded by BCCI. The Prince of Wales himself was a great affiliate of the Bank. The world needs to wake up and acknowledge the great tragedy and miscarriage of justice that was carried out over 20 years ago.
I must stress though that the level of regard I have for his opinion is the same regard Barack Obama has for my personal choice of porridge oats cereal for breakfast. Therefore the less said the better. The rising demand of consumer goods in Afghanistan would result in increasing use of Pakistani trade corridor for the landlocked Afghanistan. Although rising demand for capital and consumer goods would be a positive sign for Afghanistan but for Pakistan increasing use of its land as trade corridor would result in further flooding of her markets with smuggled foreign goods.
Because whatever be the scale of demand for goods in Afghanistan, the entire quantities of items imported for or by Afghanistan could not be utilized there and a large part of the goods would be smuggled into Pakistani markets. Having a population of estimated million people Pakistan has been a huge consumer market in the World and far greater than war-shattered Afghanistan with only 35 million people.
On the ATTA both Afghanistan and Pakistan have had serious reservations, though the nature of objections of both countries had been fundamentally different but mutually reinforcing. The main grievance of Afghanistan about ATT had been the restricted list of items allowed to be imported through Pakistan.
Goods worth billions of dollars originally meant for Afghanistan were smuggled back into Pakistani markets. This is in addition to the revenue losses due to. The five to seven billion dollars worth of smuggling under the cover of Afghan transit trade annually is a huge amount by any count particularly for the extremely underdeveloped regions of KP, Balochistan and FATA. The unending huge smuggling through ATTA has been the reason behind Islamabad taking both protective measures of limiting the number of items Afghanistan could import through Pakistan and denying India trade corridor through Pakistan for Afghanistan.
Pakistan has been fully justified in rejecting Indian and Afghan requests for giving both a trade corridor. Because the war-ravaged Afghanistan with limited writ of central government has never been in a position to check the landing back of ATTA goods into Pakistan. Also keeping in view the unhindered smuggling across the Durand Line allowing Indian goods access to Afghanistan would have been suicidal as Pakistani markets could be flooded with Indian goods and, due to their low manufacturing cost and relatively good quality, could be the choicest consumer items in Pakistan.
The ATTA has been greatly used as a cover by mischievous elements especially smugglers to feather their nests by inflicting irreparable loss on national kitty and in particular stifling the economy of KP, Balochistan and the FATA. Smuggling by land routes is not possible without the connivance and abetting of the officials who are posted on these routes. Although technically illegal, thousands of people at the border are involved in the illegal trade.
Moreover, the re-entry of transit trade goods also support other sectors like transporters, workshop owners, and real estate businesses in KP, Balochistan and FATA. The illegal movement of goods across the PakistanAfghanistan border has had another ill-effect in the shape of evolution of an undocumented economy in the north- western regions of Pakistan. The economic infrastructure in these regions has largely been non-existent or merely rudimentary, which has had compelled a large and increasing number of people to associate themselves with the illegal goods businesses.
It is important to note that keeping in view the easy money available through smuggling across the PakistanAfghanistan border, a large number of people from other. More unfortunate has been the involvement of thousands of Afghan refugees in the illegal trade. Resultantly, slowly and gradually, as mentioned earlier, a huge illegal and unregulated economy came into existence which has not been without its social and cultural consequences on Pakistan specifically in its north-western regions.
The foremost socio-cultural consequence of the billions of dollars worth of smuggling across the Durand line has been the plummeting respect for the law of the land leading to constant erosion of the writ of the state which traditionally has always been weak in these regions and whatever state control the British colonial rulers established there through modern institutions of revenue, land record, regulation of businesses and security have lost their utility.
This situation has had a huge negative impact as a large number of people got themselves involved at will in illegal trade. In order to keep the state institutions at bay most of the individuals and groups involved in smuggling of goods from Afghanistan to Pakistan established links with criminal gangs. The latter also took advantage of the condition by strengthining and expanding their networks vertically and horizontally in the process criminalizing the society on the one hand and obliterating the state writ on the other hand. The militant and terrorist groups which in the recent decades emerged and thrived in FATA, KP and Balochistan have also received handsome amounts from people involved in smuggling across the Durand Line under the cover of Afghan transit trade.
The huge administrative vacuum created due to militants and terrorists throwing away and supplanting of the state apparatus and institutions in the areas under their control has suited the interests of the smugglers. Having earned large sums of money through smuggling under the cover of so-called transit trade to Afghanistan a nouveau riche community came into existence. This community in order to institutionalize and consolidate their wealth and status started investing money in other parts of the country especially Karachi, Lahore and rest of the Punjab.
There they purchased lands and constructed plazas and shops where most of the goods smuggled from Afghanistan are transported and put on sale. Having the experience of economically entrenching themselves through establishing links either with criminal gangs or illegal tactics the nouveau riche community www. The Qabza Mafia in Karachi, having many members from upcountry, is a case in point.
The smuggling of a huge volume of goods into Pakistan from Afghanistan imported for the latter via Pakistan has scuttled real industrial development in the above-mentioned provinces and federal territory while also greatly affecting their corporate structure. The already weak industries in KP and Balochistan could not compete with the cheap smuggled foreign goods that awash the markets in these provinces and the adjoining tribal areas as consumer psychology and choice in Pakistan is always in favour of foreign-made items.
This is one of the main reasons that a major portion of the manufacturing sector of the provinces is sick. The extremely weak industrial infrastructure in these areas hindered the process of socioeconomic development and positive social changes, which are the natural corollary of development, there.
Now when Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed on the new trade regime in the form of APTTA business and political circles in Pakistan fear that the new agreement would increase the volume of cross border smuggling of goods. The powerful gangs of the criminals involved in smuggling in collusion with corrupt custom officials would fully exploit the new agreement to their utter advantage.
It is a well-known fact that a big part of the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan and Afghanistan is financed with the money obtained through smuggling. As now under the provisions of APTTA, traders from Afghanistan would be able to carry goods in their own trucks through Pakistani territory from Indian border it is feared that a good part of these exports would never reach their destination and end up in Pakistan.
This would provide further financial space to militants. Thus the new transit trade agreement of Afghanistan and Pakistan may prove counterproductive if measures are not taken to check smuggling. Sadly, the agreement under reference has nothing about this important issue of smuggling which would increase militants sources of finance. Keeping in view the big volume of invisible trade across the porous border of the two countries, there is need to further increase the volume of official trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan for the benefit of the people of these countries at large.
Otherwise the unofficial trade or smuggling would continue to enrich a handful of people. However, before proceeding on any such target of increasing the official trade the foremost obstacle, which has to be removed, is to stop the smuggling of various goods worth billions of dollars into Pakistan from Afghanistan. Another important strategy to check the illegal trade is to relocate and re-employ the huge workforce, presently involved in smuggling, productively in other sectors, which unfortunately are not functional in the KP, FATA and Balochistan.
So the panacea is developing the local industry and services sector. This may not only provide alternative job opportunities to those engaged in smuggling, but would also discourage illegal trade as local inhabitants own stakes would be involved. Prompted by harassment by the bhattha mafia, rampant kidnapping of drivers, high handedness of the Motor Police and other Highway authorities, the strike incurred losses worth billions of rupees due to stuck up export and import shipments at the Karachi Port and Port Qasim.
The strike was also detrimental to import business as importers were forced to pay demurrages for not being able to clear their consignments from the ports. The prime industrial export-oriented sectors which were affected by the strike and faced huge financial losses in terms of non-availability of basic raw material for production and output included textile, leather, marble and surgical goods. Horticulture, vegetables and fruits were the hardest hit as they need to be delivered on time to meet seasonal requirements in the world market. He alleged that the motorway police officers misbehaved with the drivers and illtreated themand detained their vehicles, for up to 72 ho or more, resulting delay in delivery of consignments.
He said that the drivers and the vehicles were released www. According to him, the security on the highways was almost non-existant with dac left free to kidnap drivers along with the truck and loot the containers. He said the vehicles are looted at the Northern Bypass, Hyderabad and several places in rural Sindh. In Punjab, Lodhran, Khanewal and Dunyapur, have been hotspots for robberies.
He further complained that National Highway Authority inspectors stop their vehicles and measure their loaded containers on too many check posts without any reason. He criticized the weighing system of National Highways and Motorway Police and suggested that the authorities should inspect and check the weight of their vehicles before they leave Karachi.
It is unfair to ask the drivers to dump the extra load when they have travelled half the way. To a question as to why the carriers overload their containers beyond the prescribed limit, he said that we have no other option as there is no transportation substitute available such as railway carriage. He further explained that prescribed weight limit depends on the number of axles of a vehicle. Transport vehicles are allowed to carry lesser load than an oil tanker with the same number of axles.
He said that in all fairness, the authorities should set a uniform load limit for both goods trucks and oil tankers. He further demanded that government must open the Mai Kolachi route for heavy trucks as it costs transporters extra fuel charges when they use the alternate route. He said that it is only unfair that the oil tankers allowed to use Mai Kolachi route while the goods carriers are denied the facility.
The goods transporters counted 5 demands which are as follows: i- Insecurity and escalating crime rate on the highways ii- Harsh and insulting behavior of motorway police iii- Weight policy of NHMP iv-Non- fulfilment of the promise to allocate acres of land at Northern Bypass.
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By the time the government realised the gravity of the situation it was already too late. Federal ministers assured transporters that their right demands would be fulfilled in the shortest period of time,-- three months in this case. Consequent to the negotiations, transporters have now been allowed to use Mai Kolachi Bypass for longer duration of time instead of previously allowed time from 11pm to 6am.
The new schedule of passing through the bypass would also be applicable to the vehicles of National Logistics Cell NLC and oil tankers, and, if these vehicles violate the schedule then the goods transporters would also be allowed to do so. Government also assured transporters that their vehicles would not be stopped at toll plazas for weighing goods.
The decision not to stop the vehicles at toll plazas for weighing is for three months. Sadly, however, implementation of the assurances given is still missing. He said that most of the incidents took place on the link roads connecting to the major highways. Javed claimed that motorway police is taking every possible step to curb the crimes in highways. Working in close coordination with local area police they have recoveredsome of the stolen goods and containers from robbers.
This situation resulted in a huge loss to the agriculture sector and wheat-sowing target of government might also be affected. Our scheduled ships at ports left for their destinations without the consignments. He termed these allegations baseless. He questioned the desirability of overloading by the goods transporters and said that overloading is one of the most common reasons of brake failures and fatal accidents on highways.
According to him, Similarly weight limit of trawlers is 60 tons, but when motorways police weighs them, they turn out to be somewhere above tons. It is the duty of the motorway police to enforce the law and when we do it, they call us harsh.